Current UK energy policy aims to introduce wider electrification for issues relating to domestic energy security and lessening carbon output. One, if not the, reason for this shift away from fossil fuels is the potential geopolitical weaponisation of oil and natural gas.
Exorbitant cost spikes perpetuate the reputation of fossil fuels as being an unreliable source of energy to support domestic fuel security. As the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran continue to destabilise global trade routes, work to establish alternative and secure fuels that are not sensitive to geopolitical concerns is well underway.
Presently, the UK is pursuing a route that will see the introduction of wider electrification, with the expressed aim of advancing renewable energy cultivation and dispersal through the UK electrical grid. The current cabinet and opposition to government hold separate plans to achieve a decarbonised grid.
The recent report ‘Decarbonising the Grid Three Scenarios for Achieving Net Zero Power’ presents three pathways that explore different routes towards providing clean and cheap energy for UK customers. Independent energy market analytics company Aurora Energy Research has reviewed each pathway and provided an interpretation of feasibility for Policy Exchange, a current government think tank.
The three scenarios chosen by this report are: Net Zero 2030 plans under the opposition; Net Zero 2035 guided by the current government; and Business-as-Usual. The third Business-As-Usual model follows the current trajectory of policy development and market conditions for the British power sector. These alternative paths focus on net zero status being achieved in 2030 and 2035, and what action must be undertaken to realise each of these ambitions.
The main argument of this report states that the British energy grid is better placed to decarbonise in the year 2035 using the opposition plan, rather than the 2030 strategy that the current government prefers. However, there are objectives that both parties agree on in principle, such as the need for an expansion of capacity in renewables.
The report summarises the 2030 approach as follows: “Aurora’s modelling shows that NZ 2030 is deemed an infeasible scenario, justified by an insufficient time available to conduct what would be a radical overhaul of the power system, policy, planning systems and investment landscape. The speed required to build critical technologies – including offshore wind, onshore wind and solar – would need to increase to multiple times their historical installation speed, as would investment in grid capacity.”
Both commercial and domestic heating will be heavily influenced by a preference towards wider UK electrification. Gas and electrical transmission networks are busy upgrading high voltage cables and overhead wires as part of a £30 billion investment package over five years. Work has begun on adapting existing infrastructure to be able to transport greater amounts of renewable power from source to end-user.
To prepare for the implementation of UK electrification, property owners of either domestic or commercial buildings should consider a heat pump as their primary source of heating and hot water.
The current government will require huge amounts of capital investment to achieve their aim of decarbonising. Aurora has calculated that £15.6 billion is required each year from now until 2030 (total £93.5 billion) and a further £4.4. billion a year from 2031 to 2035 (£22.5 billion) – a total of £116 billion over the next 11 years.
The plan to decarbonise the UK’s power grid by 2035 will require £8.2 billion of additional investment a year until 2030 – a total of £49.3 billon. A further £11.1 billion a year of additional investment from 2031 to 2035 results in a total cumulative investment of £104.6 billion over next 11 years. The 2035 approach is regarded by Aurora as more achievable due to the rate of introduction required in new and updated technology and policy amendments. The investment landscape is also considered more viable within this longer timeframe.
Commercial heating will be dictated by the decision to embrace wider electrification throughout the UK. To prepare for this transition commercial and domestic property owners should be aware of the various heat pumps that are available on the open market.
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