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Housing completions set to miss target
Housing delivery in England is set to remain well below the Government’s target of 1.5 million over the next five years, with a new forecast from Savills UK predicting an average of 167,500 completions annually to 2029/30.
The latest Housing Completions Forecast for England says a combination of weak demand, rising costs and a shrinking development pipeline will continue to limit housebuilding. Annual completions are expected to fall to around 152,000 in 2026/27 before gradually recovering to approximately 169,000 by 2028/29. Across the five-year period, total completions are forecast to reach 837,500 homes – just over half the Government’s goal.
The report highlights a 39% fall in new planning consents over the past three years to around 180,000 in 2025, alongside a 31% decline in housing starts. It says development viability has become difficult as build costs have risen 17.5% over four years, while house prices have increased by just 4.5%.
The forecast suggests recent planning reforms are beginning to encourage more residential applications and successful planning appeals, although any increase in completions is unlikely to be seen for at least 18 months. It concludes that stronger buyer demand will be needed if housing delivery is to move significantly closer to the Government’s 300,000-home annual target. But demand for new homes is constrained by affordability and rising mortgage rates. At the same time, build costs have continued to rise. This means there is limited demand to buy houses at the prices at which developers can afford to build them.