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4 mins

SPECIAL FEATURE

THE FUTURE OF THE UK ENERGY MARKET

Rinnai’s Director Chris Goggin takes a close look at the roles of natural gas, LPG and BioLPG in the current and near future UK energy market.

Which fuels currently matter most to UK consumers, and what roles do they fulfil in the current UK energy market? When responding to this question it would be impossible not to mention natural gas, despite the unfashionable label given to it by the mainstream media. The simple truth, at this moment, is that natural gas is as relevant to the UK as any other energy.

Gas, whether it be natural or LPG, still plays a central role in UK life, from heating and hot water to powering commercial properties, industrial processes and agriculture. Although work is underway to transition towards cleaner energies, natural gas still provides 85% of UK properties with essential warmth and water heating. According to figures from the International Energy Agency, natural gas contributed 36.8% of the UK’s energy provision in 2024.

LPG and Bio-LPG also have traction in their respective markets, as do hybrid systems. Gas in other less carbon intensive forms could well provide a solution to the future UK clean fuels market. It can be realistically argued that, despite the uptake in renewable energy installations and customer access to green power becoming easier, the UK is still heavily dependent on natural gas and other molecules.

The UK is second behind Germany in natural gas consumption, while also ranking second in gas-generated electrical power in 2024, with 30.3% of final electricity being produced through natural gas. Market statistics show that, in 2024, 1.5 million gas boilers were installed across all sectors in the UK, most of which as replacements.

The Future Homes & Buildings Standard was expected to be published in late 2025, and while these standards are expected to arrive soon, they are not here yet at the time of writing. These publications will eliminate gas-fired systems from newbuilds. And yet, domestic gas boiler installs were greater than heat pump connections by a ratio of more than 15 to 1 throughout 2024.

Although these standards will reduce installations of gas boilers and water heaters in newbuilds, it is obvious that, by numbers alone, gas boilers will continue to play a prominent role in UK heating.

Although traditional energies like natural gas are still dominant, alternative electrified technologies such as heat pumps are beginning to become viable for UK consumers as the go-to option for property heating and hot water in both domestic and commercial applications. of the national electricity grid. Once this is completed, UK national energy distribution will be suited towards electrical appliances like air source heat pumps. Off-grid customers have a range of energies to select from, namely LPG and Bio-LPG. LPG was the lowest carbon-emitting fuel source for 15% of UK homes and businesses that function off grid. Emissions from LPG are 33% less than coal and 15% lesser than oil. From 2023 and 2033 the UK LPG market is expected to grow by 12.82%, attracting £600 million of investments.

UK heat pump installations experienced a 40% increase during 2024.

The UK seems determined to install 600,000 heat pumps per year nationwide by 2028. That is a huge amount of work set against a skills shortage, lack of consumer attention and the logistics involving several levels of infrastructure – not least of all, the electricity grid coping with that surge in demand.

In 2024, the number of heat pumps installed in UK households stands at around 320,000. More than 65,000 were installed between January 2024 and May 2025. UK heat pump installations experienced a 40% increase throughout 2024. Meanwhile, one in eight newly constructed homes were equipped with low-carbon alternative technological options. Of the newbuild homes constructed in the UK throughout 2024, 13% were finished with heat pumps as a primary source of heating and hot water.

UK heat pump adoption is slower when compared to other European markets. Just 19 UK households per 1,000 had heat pumps installed last year. Norway had 632 per 1,000 domiciles, while the number of Finnish households containing heat pumps is 524 per 1,000. These figures reveal that there are fertile conditions for the UK heat pump market to grow – specifically in the commercial sector.

One factor that could prove to be influential in increasing heat pumps sales across the UK is the decarbonising BioLPG can significantly reduce emissions when compared to oil and LPG. Liquid Gas UK has published an industry census revealing more than £100 million is currently being invested in Bio-LPG. Together, both BioLPG and LPG can reach and decarbonise off-grid properties where other fuels and technologies are difficult to use.

Other notable synthetic gasses that are worth exploring are e-methane and biomethane. E-methane is the abbreviated name given to electro-methane, a gas created by extracting captured carbon dioxide and blending it with green hydrogen, itself produced via renewable energy. Essentially, green hydrogen electricity is converted into a storable low carbon gas – e-methane.

Biomethane is produced in a separate process – methane is captured from natural biological waste and forms during a natural process called anaerobic digestion. In the absence of oxygen microorganisms will begin to break down matter, creating methane gas.

Once impurities are removed the methane gas is upgraded and becomes biomethane. Both biomethane and e-methane are capable of identical operating behaviour when compared to fossil fuels and can therefore be placed into existing infrastructure.

This article appears in Feb-26

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This article appears in...
Feb-26
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Rinnai ’s Director Chris Goggin takes a close look at the roles of natural gas, LPG and BioLPG in the current and near future UK energy market.
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